The Uncomfortable Truth About Ukraine's Future
As Tim Stanley is right to say it's time to face reality about Western commitment and military outcomes. Western strategic failures echo past mistakes
This Telegraph piece echoes points I've been making in conversations with friends and colleagues over the past months. I've long argued that Ukraine's position was becoming untenable without full Western support, and that a negotiated settlement might be inevitable. It's validating to see similar analysis now appearing in mainstream media.
Key points from the article that align with what I've been saying:
The reality that Ukraine can't win a war that Europe won't fully commit to
The transformation of Russia into a siege economy while Western support wavered
The unsustainability of Europe expecting America to shoulder the defense burden
At the heart of this crisis lies a fundamental failure in Western strategic thinking. All effective problem-solving begins with clearly defining both the problem and the desired outcome - a basic principle that Western leadership has consistently failed to apply. We've witnessed this pattern before in Iraq and, more dramatically, in Afghanistan, where military force was committed without a clear definition of what "winning" actually meant.
This failure reflects a broader issue within the bureaucratic class, who often engage in expansive academic and philosophical debates while avoiding the harsh realities of their decisions. The European political elite, in particular, have demonstrated this disconnect, leading to growing public dissatisfaction and political upheaval across the continent. Expecting these same bureaucratic structures to resolve the problems they helped create or perpetuate defies logic.
The emergence of alternative approaches, such as Trump's more direct stance, represents a rejection of these failed conventional frameworks. While perhaps reminiscent of Old Testament justice, this shift highlights how the idealistic dreams of liberal politicians have had unintended but devastating consequences for Western nations.
The old adage about carrying a big stick speaks to a fundamental truth about international relations that many modern leaders seem to have forgotten.
Read: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/02/23/few-dare-to-admit-it-but-trump-might-be-right